Raznor's Rants

Costarring Raznor's reality-based friends!

Monday, November 03, 2003

I'm tired, but I wanted to note

Earlier, I gave reasons why we shouldn't immediately withdraw from Iraq. In it I predicted possible actions of the governments of Iran and Turkey in the event that the Kurds would begin to dominate in an Iraqi civil war. Now, to predict actions of a sovereign state, I usually use the general rule that a state will take the action that most reflects its interests. This isn't always the case in practice, since logic doesn't always go into it, but I had a bigger problem with what I posted.

Upon further thought, I really don't think there'd be any case where the Iranians would send troops into either Iraq or Afghanistan. Why? Because doing so would increase the likelihood of provoking an attack from the United States while simultaneously being frowned upon by the world community. And Iran cannot afford that. I still would predict that Turkey would send troops into Iraq, but I think it's safe to assume that Iran would sit back and watch the Iraqi civil war unfold from within its borders.

Sorry if this didn't make sense. It might make more sense if you read the original post, but I'm going to bed now. When I wake up I'll reread this and edit it for clarity if necessary.

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